Is Jane Street Manipulating Bitcoin? The Viral Theory Explained

A fresh round of Bitcoin market-manipulation chatter is ricocheting through crypto X after Jane Street added 7,105,206 shares of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, in Q4 2025, bringing its reported position to 20,315,780 shares. Speculators tie this disclosure to a long-running rumor about a daily “10AM” sell program.

Is Jane Street Manipulating The Bitcoin Price?

The allegation is simple and sticky: the same sophisticated desk “accumulating” IBIT is also supposedly the desk leaning on BTC and BTC-linked vehicles at a predictable time each morning to create better entry prices. The rebuttal, from market structure veterans, is equally blunt: you’re reading a market maker’s inventory like it’s a directional bet.

BullTheory framed the 13F as an accumulation story, writing that Jane Street bought 7,105,206 IBIT shares “worth $276 million” in Q4 2025 and “now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million,” before adding: “This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily ‘10 AM’ manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower.”

The screenshot circulating alongside the claim shows Jane Street Group LLC listed with a 13F source tag, an options indicator marked “Y,” a position of 20,315,780, and a latest change of 7,105,206, filed 12/31/25. That “Y” is the detail critics keep coming back to because it’s the quickest tell that the position may not be what the headline suggests.

BREAKING: Jane Street bought 7,105,206 $IBIT shares worth $276 million in Q4 2025.

It now holds 20,315,780 IBIT shares worth $790 million.

This is the same entity rumoured to be behind the daily “10 AM” manipulation to push Bitcoin prices lower. pic.twitter.com/NFC5r5hHUn

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) February 17, 2026

Milk Road amplified the “10am theory,” calling it “persistent whispers” about “certain institutional trading desks running a very specific/shady playbook… (Jane Street included.).” The account described an alleged routine:
“Around 10 AM ET, right at the US stock market open, large sell volumes hit BTC and related ETF shares. This creates panic → triggers liquidations of leveraged longs → and exploits thin liquidity pockets. Then the same firms allegedly buy back at lower prices.”

Milk Road added that the pattern “apparently emerged prominently in early Nov 2025,” showed up in Q2 and Q3, and “has continued into early 2026,” while stressing: “To be clear – these are unverified rumors circulating in the community.”

Not everyone bought the internal logic even on its own terms. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost responded with the question many traders would ask first: “In this rumor, when is Jane Street supposed to have bought large amounts of BTC so as not to be selling at a loss right now”. Milk Road replied that the rumor “suggests they’d accumulated in the lead up,” then used existing holdings to “sell/dump prices → buy in size at a lower price,” adding again: “totally unverified.”

Market Makers: Inventory Isn’t A Thesis

The strongest pushback focused on mechanics, not vibes. Louis LaValle, CEO and co-founder of Frontier Investments, argued the viral framing misreads what a 13F is showing in the first place:

“This isn’t correct. You’re misinterpreting the 13F. Jane Street is a lead market maker and Authorized Participant for IBI. They aren’t ‘holding’ as a bet. The ‘Y’ in the options column next to that $5.7B value confirms this is a delta-hedged position.”

LaValle added that the Q4 increase could be operational rather than directional: “They added 7 million shares in Q4 to manage the record volatility and creation/redemption demand. As a market maker, they hold these shares to balance the risk of the options they write. It has nothing to do with conviction or some mysterious price manipulation.”

Former hedge fund manager Michael Green struck a similar note, calling the discourse “painful” and pointing to what isn’t visible in the filing: “Jane Street may be taking a position in IBIT, but that position is almost entirely offset by undisclosed options (on IBIT) and futures positions. They are certainly not ‘accumulating’ a position in Bitcoin. That’s how market making works.”

Others put it more sharply. Former prop trader Ryan Scott (“Horse”) warned: “Anyone posting this as bullish is committing a capital offense. This should be ‘You’ll never guess who also has offsetting derivative positioning that does not need to be reported’ Jane Street is not longing Bitcoin.”

Nik Bhatia boiled it down to incentives: “Jane Street owns IBIT so that it can write options, arbitrage, and everything else a quantitative trading shop does to make fast money.”

Overall, the market-maker explanation appears more consistent with how these positions are typically managed, while the “10AM slam” narrative remains, at this stage, just that, a theory circulating on crypto X rather than a verified claim.

At press time, BTC traded at $68,107.