A modest claim. A bold number. Both are on the table for Bitcoin this week as a debate over how to read short-term streaks in price gains grows louder.
Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has pointed out that half of the last 24 months showed positive returns. Based on reports, he then gave a nearly 90% chance that Bitcoin would be higher in 10 months.
That leap from a simple count to a firm probability is the headline grabber. It should be met with careful questions about how the odds were calculated and what assumptions were built into the model.
Counting Positive Months
Peterson based his view on a review of monthly performance data. Figures compiled by CoinGlass show that Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 in positive territory, while the remaining six finished lower.
According to the data, 50% of the past 24 months ended with gains. Peterson said he tracks this rolling two-year window to spot potential turning points in price trends.
50% of the past 24 months have been positive.
This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.
The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000.
Data goes back to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026
Market Odds And Betting
An exchange of bets shows a very different view. Polymarket currently prices December as only a 17% shot at being the best month of 2026, with November a hair higher.
Those numbers answer a different question from Peterson’s: they reflect market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether the price will simply be higher at a future date.
Betting markets can be blunt tools, but they do pack the collective view of many traders into a single number.
Bitcoin Price Action
Price has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a roughly $67,000–$68,000 band this week as geopolitical tension in the Middle East tightened.
Safe-haven assets like gold and oil jumped on news flows, and Bitcoin felt the squeeze as some buyers stepped back. At the same time, live tickers showed the token about 20% below its level at the start of the year, a reminder that headline percentages hide wide intraday swings.
Analysts Are Split
Voices from the trading desk are divided. Michael van de Poppe suggested near-term green candles could be coming, urging traders to watch for a lift. On the other hand, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026.
Both views rest on different sets of signals — one on momentum and chart structure, the other on longer cycle patterns and risk of macro shocks.
Sentiment Still Down
Meanwhile, flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning, and on-chain liquidity figures would add weight to any forecast.
Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline, with reports noting that discussion and activity around Bitcoin predictions have slowed. Traders appear cautious, weighing past trends against current uncertainty in the market.
Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
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