A math-based scenario is getting attention in markets this week. According to experts, Ether’s market value has historically moved to about 30–35% of Bitcoin’s market cap during major bull runs.
If Bitcoin climbs to $150,000 from its current price of $119,250, that ratio would put Ether near $8,656 at the top end of the model.
At the time of writing, Ether was up 8% in a 24-hour price move, hitting $4,630 for new weekly high. Bitcoin was up a percent, and slowly closing in the key $120,000 region, data from Coingecko shows,
According to an analysis by trader Yashasedu a lower range of ratios — between close to 22% and 30% — would put Ether between $5,370 and $7,400 if Bitcoin does reach $150,000.
Market Cap Math And The Upside Case
According to the trader’s logic, the calculation is simple: pick a BTC price, multiply by BTC supply for market cap, then apply a chosen ETH/BTC market-cap ratio and divide by ETH supply to get an ETH price.
In major bull runs, $ETH typically hits 30-35% of Bitcoin’s mcap.
2017: ~35%
2021: ~36%We’re seeing similar setup now
> TVL on @ethereum crossed $90B after 2022
> Institutions buy billions of dollars worth of $ETH
> Billions of dollars of ETF inflow
> Stocks transitioning… pic.twitter.com/xuaCOAfw9P— YashasEdu (@YashasEdu) August 10, 2025
Yashasedu notes that in 2021 Ether climbed to about 36% of Bitcoin’s market cap, which is why the 30–35% range is getting cited now.
Reports have disclosed that institutional flows and growing ETF demand for Ether are part of the reason some traders expect the pattern to repeat.
Flows, Treasury Buys, And TVL
Based on reports, spot Ether ETFs recorded a single-day inflow of $1 billion recently — the biggest day so far — and TVL on Ethereum has topped $90 billion, figures that supporters point to as proof demand is rising.
Several well-known market voices have put out higher Bitcoin targets that feed into these scenarios. Tom Lee, Arthur Hayes, and Joe Burnett have forecasted Bitcoin could reach as high as $250,000 by the end of 2025.
MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe has said that we’ll likely see a new ATH for ETH and then some consolidation. Those calls are opinions, and traders use them to build scenarios rather than certainties.
Short-Term Signals And Technical Forecasts
Meanwhile, technical indicators show current sentiment as Bullish, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 73 (Greed). According to one price prediction, Ethereum is expected to rise about 10% to reach $5,125 by September 12, 2025.
Ether recorded 20 out of 30 green days recently, a 67% run of positive days, and about 8.33% price volatility over the last 30 days. These numbers feed both the bullish story and the case for caution.
Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
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